Financial Independence Timeline
Project when you reach a savings target — full FIRE, Coast FIRE, Barista FIRE, or any goal — given current savings, monthly contribution, and expected return.
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A Financial Independence Timeline projects when you reach a specific portfolio target, given your current savings, monthly contribution, and expected return. Useful for full FIRE, Coast FIRE, Barista FIRE, a house deposit, or any other long-term savings goal.
Examples
$1M target, $50k now, $2k/month, 7% real
$2M target, $0 now, $3k/month, 7% real
Doubling the contribution
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I use real or nominal returns?
How accurate is a year-count projection?
What if I expect contributions to grow over time?
Why does the timeline cap at 100 years?
References
- Future value of an annuity formula derivation — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annuity_(American)#Annuities-due
Quick Tips
Double check your inputs. Ensure units match (e.g., inches vs cm).
A Financial Independence Timeline projects when you reach a specific portfolio target, given your current savings, monthly contribution, and expected return. Useful for full FIRE, Coast FIRE, Barista FIRE, a house deposit, or any other long-term savings goal.
How to Use This Calculator
Enter your target portfolio (in today's dollars), what you have invested today, what you contribute each month, and your expected real annual return. The result is the number of years to reach the target, the calendar date you'd hit it, and a year-by-year balance projection. Adjust contribution or return to see how the timeline shifts.
Understanding the Formula
Year-by-year future value of an annuity with present value: FV(t) = PV(1+r)^t + 12 × PMT × [((1+r)^t − 1) / r]. Solved iteratively until FV(t) ≥ target. Years to FI is the smallest integer t for which the inequality holds; capped at 100.
Examples
$1M target, $50k now, $2k/month, 7% real
Approximately 19 years to hit $1M. Total contributions: $456k. Growth from returns: ~$494k. Compounding does roughly half the work.
$2M target, $0 now, $3k/month, 7% real
Approximately 26 years. Starting from zero, the early years build slowly; the back half of the timeline is dominated by compound growth on accumulated principal.
Doubling the contribution
Same $1M target / $50k starting / 7%, but $4k/month instead of $2k → drops from ~19 to ~12 years. Contribution rate is the highest-leverage variable in the early years; return matters more later.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I use real or nominal returns?
Real (inflation-adjusted) returns paired with today's-dollar target. Historical US equities are about 7% real (10% nominal minus ~3% inflation). Mixing real with nominal will overstate your progress by 2-3 percentage points per year.
How accurate is a year-count projection?
Order of magnitude, not precision. Returns vary year to year; a single bad early decade can push the timeline out by 5+ years even if the average return holds. Treat the number as a planning anchor, not a deadline.
What if I expect contributions to grow over time?
Use the average over the period (e.g. if you contribute $2k/month now and expect $3k/month in 10 years, use $2.5k as a middle estimate). Better is to re-run the calculator each year as your actual contribution evolves.
Why does the timeline cap at 100 years?
Past 100 years the projection is meaningless — you would not be alive, and tiny contributions at very low returns would technically reach almost any target eventually. The cap signals that the inputs are unrealistic for the goal.
Assumptions & Limitations
- Constant return year over year. Real markets are volatile; sequence-of-returns risk in the early years can extend the timeline materially.
- Constant monthly contribution in real terms. If your nominal contribution grows with salary increases at the rate of inflation, this is accurate; if it stays nominally flat, the projection is optimistic.
- Returns are real (inflation-adjusted). Mixing nominal returns with today-dollar targets will overstate progress.
- Annual compounding with year-end contributions. Real monthly compounding is slightly faster (~1 year drift over a 30-year horizon).
- No taxes, fees, or withdrawals during the accumulation phase.
References
- Future value of an annuity formula derivation — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annuity_(American)#Annuities-due